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The U.S. offensive against Iran may have come as a surprise to some, but certainly not to those on prediction markets. Over half a billion dollars was traded on Polymarket on whether the U.S. would strike Iran, making it one of the most popular wagers in the history of the platform. Just like when the U.S. struck Venezuela, there are suspicions about insider trading. Onchain analysts have flagged six bettors who made about $1.2 million by correctly wagering on the U.S. attack on Iran.